Every pick, wins and losses

Track record

Every pick is timestamped when we post it and graded after the game. Nothing is edited or removed.

Strongest edges

5–4

Small edges 11–8

Beat or matched the closing line

6/6

Closing line value

Pending

Units overall +3.63

Small sample — 28 picks logged. Judge us over hundreds of picks.

How we did

Graded automatically after every game, in every sport. Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 8:02 PM ET.

Sport	Strongest edges	Small edges	Winner right	Avg miss	Our number vs spread	Our number vs total	Beat close
All sports	4–1+2.64u	2–6−3.12u	73%of 94	9.4	35–41–1	54–40	6/6
NFL	1–1−0.09u	0–2−2.00u	93%of 14	8.2	7–7	6–8	2/2
COLLEGE	3–0+2.73u	0–4−4.00u	68%of 53	12.1	23–29–1	29–24	4/4
NHL	—	1–0+1.50u	71%of 17	1.8	—	11–6	—
NBA	—	1–0+1.38u	78%of 9	9.6	4–5	7–2	—
HOOPS	—	—	100%of 1	7.5	1–0	1–0	—

Units: profit or loss staking 1 unit on every pick at the posted price. Small samples swing a lot — judge us over hundreds of picks.

Rules we're testing

Big underdogs need a strongest edge
Since Nov 11: in the NFL and college, an underdog getting 7.5+ points is only posted when it is a strongest edge. As small edges these went 1–4 in our graded record (only Titans +13.5 won). Strongest edges are kept: 1–1 so far (Miami +7.5 won, Cardinals +8.5 lost).
College spreads need a strongest edge
Since Nov 11: college spread picks are only posted as strongest edges. Our raw college spread numbers went 21–28 last week while college totals went 28–22, so small edges on college spreads are paused. Reviewed monthly.

The picks so far

OPEN

Man Utd to win

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · Soccer · Manchester United at Sporting CP · bet365

Our number

0 (+200)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Le Mans to win

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · Soccer · Le Mans at Marseille · bet365

Our number

0 (+600)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Under 2.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 11 · Soccer · Lyon at Lille · BetRivers

Our number

2.5 (−110)

Closing

2.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Toulouse to win

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 12 · Soccer · Toulouse at Lens · theScore

Our number

0 (+310)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Jets +8.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 9 · NFL · Bills at Jets · BetMGM

Our number

8.5 (−112)

Closing

8.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Over 47.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 10 · NFL · Panthers at Saints · BetRivers

Our number

47.5 (−117)

Closing

48.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Saints -2

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · NFL · Panthers at Saints · BetRivers

Our number

-2 (−109)

Closing

-2.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Penn State −7.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 9 · College · Minnesota at Penn State · BetRivers

Our number

-7.5 (−114)

Closing

-9.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Under 43.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 10 · College · Minnesota at Penn State · bet365

Our number

43.5 (−110)

Closing

41.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Over 64.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 9 · College · Oregon State at Boise State · BetRivers

Our number

64.5 (−121)

Closing

63.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Boise State −10.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 10 · College · Oregon State at Boise State · BetRivers

Our number

-10.5 (−117)

Closing

-14.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Over 55.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College · Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech · BetRivers

Our number

55.5 (−106)

Closing

56.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Cal +12

SMALL EDGE

Nov 9 · College · California at Virginia · BetRivers

Our number

12 (−120)

Closing

10 (—)

—

OPEN

Sam Houston +8.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 10 · College · Kennesaw State at Sam Houston · BetRivers

Our number

8.5 (−112)

Closing

7 (—)

—

OPEN

Over 235.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 13 · NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat · Caesars

Our number

235.5 (−110)

Closing

237.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Over 244.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 13 · NBA · Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls · Caesars

Our number

244.5 (−110)

Closing

246.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Under 162.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 13 · College Hoops · Georgia Southern Eagles at UCF Knights · FanDuel

Our number

162.5 (−110)

Closing

160.5 (—)

—

OPEN

UCF -21.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 13 · College Hoops · Georgia Southern Eagles at UCF Knights · FanDuel

Our number

-21.5 (−120)

Closing

-23.5 (—)

—

OPEN

USF +5.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 9 · College · Memphis at South Florida · BetRivers

Our number

5.5 (−110)

Closing

-4 (—)

—

OPEN

S. Alabama +1

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Loyola Marymount Lions at South Alabama Jaguars · Caesars

Our number

1 (−110)

Closing

-1.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Raptors ML

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 12 · NBA · Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers · theScore

Our number

0 (+320)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Over 221.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 12 · NBA · Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers · theScore

Our number

221.5 (−105)

Closing

223.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Raptors +9.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 12 · NBA · Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers · theScore

Our number

9.5 (+100)

Closing

7.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Niagara ML

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Niagara Purple Eagles at Bowling Green Falcons · theScore

Our number

0 (+1100)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Stetson ML

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Stetson Hatters at Howard Bison · theScore

Our number

0 (+450)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Canisius ML

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Canisius Golden Griffins at Brown Bears · theScore

Our number

0 (+750)

Closing

at kickoff

—

OPEN

Sacred Heart -5.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Central Connecticut State Blue Devils at Sacred Heart Pioneers · BetRivers

Our number

-5.5 (−108)

Closing

-6.5 (—)

—

OPEN

Under 147.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 12 · College Hoops · Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions · theScore

Our number

147.5 (−115)

Closing

145.5 (—)

—

WIN

CAR -1.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken · Caesars

Our number

-1.5 (+150)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Nets ML

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · NBA · Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans · BetRivers

Our number

0 (+138)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Over 51.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · College · Buffalo at Ball State · bet365

Our number

51.5 (−110)

Closing

52.5 (—)

+1.0

LOSS

Akron +15

SMALL EDGE

Nov 11 · College · Western Michigan at Akron · BetRivers

Our number

15 (−113)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Cardinals +8.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 9 · NFL · Cardinals at Seahawks · FanDuel

Our number

8.5 (−105)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Jets +9.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 8 · NFL · Jets at Chiefs · consensus

Our number

9.5 (−112)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Raiders +10

SMALL EDGE

Nov 8 · NFL · Raiders at 49ers · consensus

Our number

10 (−115)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Under 44.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 8 · NFL · Bills at Vikings · FanDuel

Our number

44.5 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Over 66

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 8 · College · West Virginia at Texas Tech · consensus

Our number

66 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Miami +7.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 8 · College · Miami at Notre Dame · consensus

Our number

7.5 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

MSST -3

SMALL EDGE

Nov 7 · College · Vanderbilt at Mississippi St · consensus

Our number

-3 (−102)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Over 45.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 7 · College · Rutgers at Wisconsin · consensus

Our number

45.5 (−108)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Over 64.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 7 · College · Rice at North Texas · consensus

Our number

64.5 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Under 45.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Chargers @ Rams · consensus

Our number

45.5 (−108)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Over 38.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Browns @ Steelers · consensus

Our number

38.5 (−115)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Over 40.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Eagles @ Commanders · consensus

Our number

40.5 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Under 46.5

STRONGEST EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Bears @ Seahawks · consensus

Our number

46.5 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Under 46.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Vikings @ Lions · consensus

Our number

46.5 (−120)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Cardinals +7

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Cardinals @ Cowboys · consensus

Our number

7 (−102)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Buccaneers −1.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Falcons @ Bucs · consensus

Our number

-1.5 (−115)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Under 43.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Falcons @ Bucs · consensus

Our number

43.5 (−118)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Titans +13.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Titans @ Bengals · consensus

Our number

13.5 (−112)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Over 41.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Chiefs @ Broncos · consensus

Our number

41.5 (−102)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Dolphins +7

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Patriots @ Dolphins · consensus

Our number

7 (−110)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Over 41.5

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Patriots @ Dolphins · consensus

Our number

41.5 (−108)

Closing

at kickoff

—

WIN

Bears +3

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Bears @ Seahawks · consensus

Our number

3 (−105)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Vikings +3

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Vikings @ Lions · consensus

Our number

3 (+100)

Closing

at kickoff

—

LOSS

Colts +10

SMALL EDGE

Nov 2 · NFL · Colts @ Jaguars · consensus

Our number

10 (−108)

Closing

at kickoff

—

Is the model honest?

Each dot is a group of games where we predicted a similar chance. The closer the dots sit to the dashed line, the better our numbers match what actually happened. Bigger dots mean more games.

Predicted	Actual	Games
0–20%	20.4%	49
20–30%	20.3%	187
30–40%	32.2%	376
40–50%	43.9%	519
50–60%	54.6%	612
60–70%	65.3%	652
70–80%	76.9%	446
80–100%	89.8%	177

What our tests found

The market is hard to beat

Over 2,895 NFL games (2015–2025) the closing spread missed by 12.73 points on average; a stats-only model missed by 13.27. So the market anchors every number we publish.

Stats-only picks were a coin flip

Betting every NFL game where the stats model disagreed with the line by 3+ points went 544-551 against the spread. That's why every Strongest edge needs the sharp-market check.

What did hold up

Home underdogs of 7+: 126-106 (54%) · Road team with 3+ extra days of rest: 184-156 (54%). Each counts as one signal, never a pick on its own.

Machine learning, tested Nov 9

A gradient-boosting model trained on every NFL play since 2014 and tested on unseen seasons (2018–2025) hit 52.7% on spreads and 53.6% on totals against closing lines — not different from break-even or chance, so it is not used for picks.

NBA: the market wins, so we follow it

We tested our NBA team ratings on 2,391 games (Nov 2024 to now). They missed the final margin by 14.67 points on average; the closing spread missed by 13.91. Betting the ratings alone where they disagreed with the line by 3+ points went 567-601. So every NBA game is centred on the market, and an edge needs a book with a better number that the sharpest bookmaker also agrees with.

Soccer: the closing price wins too

Across 3,481 matches in six competitions since Oct 2024, our team ratings were less accurate than the closing home/draw/away price in every league, and betting them alone lost about 17% of every stake. So soccer is centred on the market and an edge needs a better price that Pinnacle also supports.

College basketball: the market wins here too

We tested our college basketball ratings on 9,320 games across all of Division I (Dec 2024 to now). They missed the final margin by 12.28 points on average; the closing spread missed by 11.01 — even in smaller conferences. So every game is centred on the market, and plays come only from better prices confirmed by the sharp market.

NHL: same lesson

On 224 games this season a goals-only model scored worse than the closing moneyline, so NHL numbers are 90% market, 10% model.

Track record

How we did

The picks so far

Is the model honest?

What our tests found

Where are you, and are you 19+?